JANUARY IS NOT UNLUCKY, IT’S PREDICTABLE - MOBIVENTURES
- Business Sense
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
We’ve entered 2026 and I would like to wish all readers a safe, successful and prosperous year ahead. A new year brings optimism, fresh goals and renewed energy. It also brings something far less welcome, but entirely predictable, a spike in serious crime.
January is not an unlucky month. It’s forecastable.
After many years working in crime prevention and emergency management, one pattern has remained remarkably consistent. While December is often associated with heightened crime, many career and organised criminals actually slow down over the festive season. They also take time off, visit family, travel and enjoy the lavish lifestyle their criminal proceeds have provided for. Criminals like holidays too The Problem Begins When January Arrives By mid-January, the festive spending is over, the money is gone and pressure is on. This is when criminal operations restart with a sense of urgency.
The coffers need refilling, and quickly. Historically, the period from mid-January to mid-February sees a marked increase in cash-in-transit heists, business robberies, home invasions, hijackings, vehicle theft and housebreaking. This is not random opportunistic crime. It is organised, planned and targeted.
One of the greatest risks at this time of year is complacency. December often feels more relaxed as we drift into holiday mode. Staff return distracted, systems are not always fully reset, and predictability creeps back in. Criminals know this and they rely on it. Cash-related crime remains a key driver early in the year.
Businesses moving money for payroll or operations become attractive targets when movements are predictable. Reducing physical cash exposure wherever possible and avoiding fixed routines makes a meaningful difference. Business robberies also increase, particularly during opening and closing times.
Staff returning from leave may be out of routine and less alert. Simple discipline matters, vary routines, test panic systems and reinforcing calm, compliant responses during an incident. Hijackings and vehicle theft follow familiar patterns.
Predictable routes, fixed departure times and distracted drivers create opportunity. Awareness, route variation and avoiding routine go a long way in reducing risk. Home invasions deserve special mention.
Homes are targeted not only for valuables, but for access to devices, information and systems. Business owners and executives are becoming increasingly at risk with remote and hybrid work now common, the line between home security and business security has become blurred. A breach at home can quickly become a business problem.
Crime Follows Cycles
The broader lesson is straightforward. Crime follows cycles, much like the economy. My personal payoff line when referring to this is: ‘When security is treated as a reaction, it feels expensive. When it is treated as a predictable risk, it becomes manageable.’
Preparedness is not about fear. It is about leadership.
As we move into 2026, the challenge is to resist complacency, understand the patterns and act early. January does not have to be dangerous.
It simply needs to be taken seriously.
Cheers for now.
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