The R62.3bn Opportunity: Scaling KZN’s Next Generation of Manufacturers

By Chelsea Brand

KwaZulu-Natal’s manufacturing future may not be found in replacing its biggest industries, but in building everything around them.

Aluminium, automotive, metals, pulp and chemicals will remain fundamental to the province’s industrial economy. Yet, a recent Nedbank-hosted manufacturing event at Mount Edgecombe Country Club highlighted a substantial opportunity sitting between KZN’s established industrial giants and its smaller emerging businesses.

It is described as the “scalable middle” – products that already have commercial traction and can potentially be expanded by using capabilities, infrastructure and supplier networks that are already present in the province.

The numbers are compelling.

The scalable middle comprises 151 HS4 (harmonized system) product groups worth R62.3 billion, representing almost 20% of KZN’s total exports.

Moving beyond the biggest exports

The case for diversification is clear.

In 2025, precious metals generated R74.4 billion in exports, ores R59.3 billion, vehicles and parts R43.1 billion, aluminium R36.4 billion and wood pulp R17.2 billion.

Together, these five categories accounted for approximately 73% of KZN’s exports.

Rather than moving away from these industries, the opportunity is to move further down their value chains.

Aluminium can support tubes, pipes, foil and fabricated products. Automotive manufacturing can create demand for components, accessories and specialised equipment. Pulp and paper can feed into packaging and processed paper products, while chemicals can support homecare, personal-care and speciality products.

Several scalable-middle products are already significant: kraft paper and paperboard are worth R2.3 billion, vehicle parts and accessories R2.1 billion, organic surface-active agents R1.3 billion, iron and steel articles R1.3 billion, aluminium tubes and pipes R1.2 billion and soap products R1.1 billion.

The opportunity is therefore not necessarily about inventing new industries.

It is about scaling commercial activity that already exists.

The smaller markets matter too

The presentation also identifies a manufacturing “long tail” where smaller sectors could become meaningful contributors to diversification.

Beauty and make-up preparations are worth approximately R1 billion and have recorded a real CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 9.5% across 68 markets. Metal structures are worth R1 billion and have recorded 23.4% growth across 66 markets.

Mechanical appliances, worth R600 million, have grown by 19.6% across 70 markets, while medical consumables worth R500 million have recorded a 14.2% real CAGR across 35 markets.

Together, these opportunities illustrate how KZN could reduce some of its exposure to commodity cycles while creating new pathways for specialised manufacturers.

Building value-chain families

The strongest opportunity may come from connecting related products rather than developing them individually.

Chemicals, homecare and medical consumables represent 18 products worth R10.3 billion. Metals and fabricated products cover 14 products worth R7.5 billion, while food, beverages and home staples represent 16 products worth R6.5 billion.

Other significant value-chain families include wood, paper and packaging at R4.9 billion; machinery and equipment at R4.8 billion; textiles and technical fabrics at R3.9 billion; mobility and transport equipment at R3.2 billion; and plastics and rubber products at R1.8 billion.

This approach allows businesses to share skills, machinery, suppliers and infrastructure across multiple products and markets.

KZN’s industrial corridors

The province’s geography also supports the opportunity.

eThekwini is the strongest export platform identified, with 189 HS4 opportunities worth R41.5 billion and an average of 36 destination markets.

Pietermaritzburg/Msunduzi represents R4.3 billion, Newcastle-Ladysmith R2.9 billion and Richards Bay/uMhlathuze R2.6 billion.

The opportunity extends beyond traditional markets. Priority destinations identified include the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Italy, India, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Belgium and Canada.

For example, the US aluminium market imports approximately $6.1 billion in unwrought aluminium, with a KZN opportunity screen of $926.3 million. The US vehicle market is worth $91.8 billion, with a KZN opportunity screen of $374.3 million.

Mexico’s aluminium plates and sheets market is worth $2.8 billion, with a KZN opportunity screen of $459.6 million.

These are opportunity screens, not guaranteed sales. Standards, market access, buyer qualification and trade policy will determine which opportunities can ultimately be converted into exports.

Turning opportunity into scale

The final question is whether businesses have the capacity to respond.

An SME may identify a customer but lack the machinery, certification, inventory or working capital needed to fulfil the order. Supplier-development programmes, anchor buyers and appropriately structured finance can help bridge that gap.

Finance may also become increasingly important as sustainability requirements reshape international trade. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive regime on 1 January 2026, making emissions, energy use and carbon reporting increasingly relevant to exporters of products including aluminium and iron and steel.

KZN has the industrial foundation.

It has the markets, infrastructure, established manufacturers and a R62.3 billion scalable middle waiting to be developed.

The opportunity now is to turn those existing strengths into a broader generation of manufacturers – businesses capable not only of supplying KZN, but of competing in global markets.